The Euro

Will the UK Join the Euro?

欧元——英国会加入欧元吗？

As of 2016 the UK voted to leave the EU so the prospect of joining the euro is pretty remote to say the least. This section will be rewritten and overhauled very soon.

We will not dwell on this section. The decision as to whether the UK joins may be based on the economic pros and cons, but the final decision to purely political. The Labour government's position is currently as follows.

In October 1997, within six months of the new Labour government taking office, the Chancellor announced that the government was in favour of joining the euro in principle, but only if the UK economy passed the following five economic tests.

截至2016年，英国投票离开欧盟，所以加入欧元的前景至少可以说是相当遥远。这一节将很快被重写和大修。

我们不会在这一节上多说。英国是否加入的决定可能是基于经济上的利弊，但最后的决定纯粹是政治性的。目前，工党政府的立场如下。

1997年10月，在新工党政府上台后的6个月内，财政大臣宣布，政府原则上赞成加入欧元，但前提是英国经济必须通过以下5项经济测试。

Brown's five economic tests 布朗的五个经济测试

1. Convergence. The UK economy must see cyclical convergence with Euro-land. This means that real GDP growth rates need to be in sync for a reasonable period of time, as well as Interest rates, trade balances and unemployment levels. This is the key test. For further discussion, see below.
2. Flexibility. This test asks the question "is there enough flexibility to deal with any problems that might emerge?" In 1997, the government felt that the UK was not quite flexible enough, although schemes like the New Deal ought to have helped. A more interesting question is, are the economies of Euro-land flexible enough, and if not, will that affect a successful UK entry into the euro?
3. Investment. Would joining the euro create better conditions for foreign firms making long term decisions to invest in the UK? This is the controversial debate on whether Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) will rise or fall if the UK joins the euro.
4. The City. What impact would joining the euro have on the competitive position of the UK's financial services industry? Again, difficult to call. The UK's financial services industries seem to be doing well outside the euro, but would they do even better if the UK was part of Euro-land?
5. Jobs. If the UK joined the euro, would it promote GDP growth and, therefore, employment? This test is a little redundant because it depends almost totally on the first convergence test.

6. 趋同。英国经济必须与欧元区实现周期性的趋同。这意味着实际GDP增长率需要在一段合理的时间内保持同步，利率、贸易平衡和失业水平也是如此。这是关键的考验。进一步的讨论，见下文。
7. 灵活性。这个测试问的是 "是否有足够的灵活性来处理可能出现的任何问题？" 1997年，政府认为英国还不够灵活，尽管像新政这样的计划应该有帮助。一个更有趣的问题是，欧洲大陆的经济是否足够灵活，如果不是，这是否会影响英国成功加入欧元区？
8. 投资。加入欧元区会不会为外国公司在英国投资的长期决策创造更好的条件？这是关于如果英国加入欧元区，外国直接投资（FDI）是上升还是下降的有争议的辩论。
9. 市。加入欧元对英国金融服务业的竞争地位会有什么影响？同样，很难说。英国的金融服务业在欧元区外似乎做得很好，但如果英国成为欧元区的一部分，它们会做得更好吗？
10. 就业。如果英国加入欧元区，会不会促进GDP增长，从而促进就业？这个测试有点多余，因为它几乎完全取决于第一个趋同测试。

As we have already said, the key test is convergence. All the other tests are, effectively, dependent on the first one working out.

So is the UK economy converging on Euro-land?

正如我们已经说过的，关键的测试是趋同。所有其他的测试，实际上都取决于第一个测试的结果。

那么，英国经济是否正在向欧洲大陆靠拢？

Has the UK converged with the euro-land economies? 英国是否已经与欧元区的经济趋同？

Around this time the UK begun to converge with Euro-land. Real growth rates were very similar (both predicted to be around 3% in 2000), inflation was actually lower in the UK and, although unemployment was still much higher in Euro-land, coming down moderately quickly. The key problems are interest rates and the exchange rate.

大约在这个时候，英国开始向欧元区靠拢。实际增长率非常相似（预测在2000年都在3%左右），英国的通货膨胀率实际上较低，尽管欧元区的失业率仍然高得多，但很快就会适度下降。关键问题是利率和汇率。

Short-term interest rates have converged. Whereas the difference was over 4% two years ago, it is now less than 2%. This still seems quite high given how hard it is to squeeze a % change out of the MPC. The long-term rates (based on the interest rates on long term government bonds) are very similar, though.

短期利率已经趋同。两年前的差距超过4%，而现在则不到2%。考虑到从货币政策委员会挤出一个百分比的变化是多么困难，这似乎仍然相当高。不过，长期利率（基于长期政府债券的利率）是非常相似的。

The exchange rate is probably too high at the moment. By how much depends on which economist you believe. Some think it is as little as 5% overvalued, others think it is nearer 15%. But the pound is actually quite weak against the dollar. Many blame the euro's weakness rather than the pound's strength for the current overvaluation of sterling.

目前的汇率可能太高了。具体多少取决于你相信哪位经济学家。有些人认为它只被高估了5%，有些人认为它接近15%。但是，英镑对美元的汇率实际上是相当弱的。许多人将目前英镑的高估归咎于欧元的疲软而不是英镑的强势。

It has to be said that the UK could join the euro in the next few years. Whilst convergence with the main economies of Euro-land might not be perfect, it is better than with many of the smaller countries that are already part of the euro! The key issues are, (i) is this convergence permanent, or are the cycles just crossing over, like 'ships in the night' as Eddie George, the Governor of the Bank of England, put it, and (ii) being convergent when the UK can set its own interest rate is not the same as being convergent within Euro-land with the ECB setting interest rates.

不得不说，英国可能在未来几年内加入欧元。虽然与欧元区的主要经济体的融合可能并不完美，但比与许多已经是欧元区一部分的小国的融合要好得多。关键问题是，（i）这种趋同是永久性的，还是像英格兰银行行长埃迪-乔治所说的那样，周期只是交叉进行，就像'黑夜中的船只'，以及（ii）当英国可以设定自己的利率时的趋同，与在欧洲大陆由欧洲央行设定利率时的趋同是不一样的。

Update 2016: Interest rates have declined in the UK to 0.5% and 0%. We are now in a world where negative interest rates are becoming more frequent!

2016年更新。英国的利率已经下降到0.5%和0%。我们现在正处于一个负利率越来越频繁的世界中

So, will the UK join? 那么，英国会加入吗？

The government has said they want to join. They agree with the single currency in principle. They are simply waiting for economy to pass the economic tests, and then a referendum will be held. If the voters want to go in, then that's it!

政府已经说他们想加入。他们原则上同意单一货币。他们只是在等待经济通过经济测试，然后再举行公投。如果选民们想加入，那就这样吧!

Of course, it's not as simple as that. Public opinion is against joining at the moment. Many feel that if Blair gave public backing to the project, he could persuade the voters to agree, and win the referendum, just as he won the 1997 General Election. Blair will not announce a referendum unless he is sure he will win it. At the moment he does not think he can win it. Also, with the next General Election coming up, he wants to win a second term on the back of the prosperous economy rather than have a petty squabble with the Conservatives on the subject of the euro, the one issue where Hague's view is similar to the voters.

当然，事情没有那么简单。目前，公众舆论反对加入。许多人认为，如果布莱尔公开支持这个项目，他可以说服选民同意，并赢得公投，就像他赢得1997年大选一样。布莱尔不会宣布举行公投，除非他确信自己会赢得公投。目前，他不认为自己能赢得公投。另外，随着下一次大选的到来，他希望在繁荣的经济基础上赢得第二个任期，而不是在欧元问题上与保守党发生小争执，这是黑格的观点与选民相似的一个问题。

Another point to consider is that the UK might get left behind. If the UK dithers for too long and the euro does turn out to be successful, the UK will miss out on extra prosperity. One has to allow for the possibility that the other countries will not want us in if we wait too long. This is what happened after the European Community was formed in 1958. We didn't fancy it to start with, and then when we tried to join in the 60s, De Gaulle, the President of France, did not want us and kept vetoing our entry. The UK did not join until 1973 after De Gaulle had died!
需要考虑的另一点是，英国可能会被甩在后面。如果英国踌躇不前太久，而欧元真的成功了，英国将错过额外的繁荣。我们必须考虑到这样一种可能性，即如果我们等待太久，其他国家将不希望我们加入。这就是1958年欧洲共同体成立后的情况。我们一开始并不看好它，然后当我们在60年代试图加入时，法国总统戴高乐不希望我们加入，并不断否决我们加入。直到1973年戴高乐去世后，英国才加入!

Cynics say that the five economic tests are so vague and difficult to gauge that the government could sit on the fence forever, or decide to go for it in a matter of months. Hence, the decision is totally political. You must keep watching the news to understand this issue and to see when, or if, the UK joins the single currency. As these are revision notes on economics and not politics, I think it might be best to stop there!

愤世嫉俗者说，五项经济测试是如此模糊和难以衡量，政府可能永远坐立不安，或者在几个月内决定去做。因此，这个决定完全是政治性的。你必须持续关注新闻以了解这个问题，并观察英国何时或是否加入单一货币。由于这些是关于经济而不是政治的复习笔记，我想最好到此为止！"。